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	<title>Comments on: Simulation of human brain getting closer&#8230;</title>
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	<link>http://ginstrom.com/scribbles/2009/11/20/simulation-of-human-brain-getting-closer/</link>
	<description>Random scribbling about programming, translation, and Japan</description>
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		<title>By: Ryan Ginstrom</title>
		<link>http://ginstrom.com/scribbles/2009/11/20/simulation-of-human-brain-getting-closer/comment-page-1/#comment-12069</link>
		<dc:creator>Ryan Ginstrom</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 13:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>@Michael

I did note the speed of the simulation, but I don&#039;t think that&#039;s important -- or rather, it&#039;s more a symptom of the two main hurdles: power consumption and heat output. The main reason that the simulation runs so slowly is that they used older chips, which run slower but generate less heat.

So in order for Moore&#039;s Law (broadly interpreted) to continue, they&#039;ll either have to overcome these obstacles in silicon chips, or come up with new computing substrates that do so.

&quot;&quot;&quot;
If machine translation is in fact a desirable goal, I don’t see total human brain simulation as a very likely way to make it economical within our lifetimes.
&quot;&quot;&quot;

I&#039;d say it&#039;s a very desirable goal, just maybe not for us translators. :)

Although brain simulation may not be the only or even best way of achieving general AI, it&#039;s the only sure way so far, as far as I know.

I&#039;ve written about this before, but as I see it playing out, we do get AI in our lifetimes, but at first it&#039;s so expensive that it&#039;s not cost effective to use it on translation and the like. But then, as the cost inevitably comes down, AI takes over every facet of human labor. Of course modulo Moore&#039;s Law ending, end of humanity, etc. :)</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>@Michael</p>
<p>I did note the speed of the simulation, but I don&#8217;t think that&#8217;s important &#8212; or rather, it&#8217;s more a symptom of the two main hurdles: power consumption and heat output. The main reason that the simulation runs so slowly is that they used older chips, which run slower but generate less heat.</p>
<p>So in order for Moore&#8217;s Law (broadly interpreted) to continue, they&#8217;ll either have to overcome these obstacles in silicon chips, or come up with new computing substrates that do so.</p>
<p>&#8220;&#8221;"<br />
If machine translation is in fact a desirable goal, I don’t see total human brain simulation as a very likely way to make it economical within our lifetimes.<br />
&#8220;&#8221;"</p>
<p>I&#8217;d say it&#8217;s a very desirable goal, just maybe not for us translators. <img src='http://ginstrom.com/scribbles/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
<p>Although brain simulation may not be the only or even best way of achieving general AI, it&#8217;s the only sure way so far, as far as I know.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve written about this before, but as I see it playing out, we do get AI in our lifetimes, but at first it&#8217;s so expensive that it&#8217;s not cost effective to use it on translation and the like. But then, as the cost inevitably comes down, AI takes over every facet of human labor. Of course modulo Moore&#8217;s Law ending, end of humanity, etc. <img src='http://ginstrom.com/scribbles/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_smile.gif' alt=':)' class='wp-smiley' /> </p>
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		<title>By: Michael Turner</title>
		<link>http://ginstrom.com/scribbles/2009/11/20/simulation-of-human-brain-getting-closer/comment-page-1/#comment-12066</link>
		<dc:creator>Michael Turner</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Nov 2009 11:22:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description>Ryan, you missed how the machine simulates at 1/600th real-time.  Toward the end of the article, there&#039;s an estimate that running a human brain simulation at real-time speed would cost $1b/year in electricity bills alone.  And that&#039;s if and when the hardware is available under a Moore&#039;s Law projection -- requiring another ten doublings for the same -- very high -- hardware cost.

If machine translation is in fact a desirable goal, I don&#039;t see total human brain simulation as a very likely way to make it economical within our lifetimes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ryan, you missed how the machine simulates at 1/600th real-time.  Toward the end of the article, there&#8217;s an estimate that running a human brain simulation at real-time speed would cost $1b/year in electricity bills alone.  And that&#8217;s if and when the hardware is available under a Moore&#8217;s Law projection &#8212; requiring another ten doublings for the same &#8212; very high &#8212; hardware cost.</p>
<p>If machine translation is in fact a desirable goal, I don&#8217;t see total human brain simulation as a very likely way to make it economical within our lifetimes.</p>
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